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Flemington Review – February 17 2024.

Flemington Meeting Review

Date: 17/02/24

Track: Good 4

Rail: True

Race 1: BM (84) – 2000m

Tempo: Slightly moderate tempo in the early stages.

Race Overview: They sprinted home ok the last 600m and the first 3 got some separation from the rest of the field. The race has rated OK for a small field like this.

El Soleado ($4.80) – The Robbie Laing camp is absolutely flying lately (5 wins from their last 11 runners). I think he is reaching his level and needed an absolute peach of a ride to get home here.

Aramco ($1.95) – Every chance when leading. Although he was disappointing I had him holding his rating from last start. Just found one better on the day.

Last Word: This race is neither potent, nor junk.

EL SOLEADO  neither potent or junk.

Race 2: BM (70) – 1100m

Tempo: Slightly slower than race 3 but quick enough to give every horse a chance.

Race Overview: Margins only fair but time is good. There’s some nice horses in this race.

Big Watch ($6.50) – They went 1000m to 1300m second up and it just didn’t work out. Back in distance suited and won well enough. His figures from his last campaign were good enough to win this.

Ouroboros ($5.50) – I thought this was conservative placement first up given what he had done last campaign. Ran well and should win races this campaign.

Wiggum ($8) – That’s 2 races now this campaign where he hasn’t been in the right part of the track. Expect he can improve next start.

Last Word: Should be winners out of this.

OUROBOROS  is an ancient symbol depicting a serpent or dragon eating its own tail. True Story.

Race 3: Talindert Stakes – 1100m

Tempo: Strong early tempo.

Race Overview: Race has gone about standard for this class. Visually impressive but less so on the clock.

Aardvark ($4.60) – Showed improvement from its debut run. Didn’t rate anywhere near what Coleman did a couple of weeks ago so doubt he can win the Blue Diamond.

Counteroffensive ($4) – Was backed from $4.80 into $4 so that tells you what the market thinks of the race Coleman won 2 weeks prior. Was disappointing.

Last Word: These aren’t the cream of the crop.

AARDVARK  no cream?

Race 4: BM (84) – 1600m

Tempo: They went quick here.

Race Overview: For this class, the race has gone about 2 lengths inside standard.

Rumbled Again ($11) – Specked in betting coming out of a good race behind Punch Lane where not everything went his way. Plus jockey here and deserved win. Has more left in the tank this prep.

Magnaspin ($6) – Put the writing on the wall first up. Flying and got another couple of decent runs left in him this time in.

Who Dares ($4) – Got warm late in the market but the tempo and rise to 1600m brought about his undoing. Needs a spell.

Circle of Fire ($4.60) – Import having his first start in Aus. Did enough and will be better over 2000m and beyond.

Last Word: Bits and pieces in this race but happy to sack Who Dares if they continue with the campaign.

WHO DARES  has been sacked.

Race 5: Tressady Stakes – 1400m

Tempo: Slowed down in the middle stages

Race Overview: Bunched up from the 600m and sprinted home. Margins just ok and time just ok.

Revolutionary Miss ($5) – Had a nice run in behind them and got all the favours. Nice mare but doubt she has a G1 in her.

Eternal Flame ($7) – Tragedy beat. Still rated better than anything she had done previously. I’m sceptical about her ability levels and think she will be over bet next start.

Foxy Frida ($7.50) – Probably not suited by the tempo. Has fitness improvement in her and will always be competitive in this class.

Wishlor Lass ($2) – Easy to say in hindsight but not sure how she has started so short. I’m worried about her ability to save the campaign.

Last Word: Nice mares but not sure any of them would be able to win a G1.

REVOLUTIONARY MISS  nice mare but G1 worthy?

Race 6: Vanity Stakes – 1400m

Tempo: Strong early tempo.

Race Overview: Last 200m was only fair after they went out quick.

Grinzinger Belle ($12) – Great effort to win like that first up. Has a good racing pattern and keeps improving. Nice filly.

Mollynickers ($4.60) – Soft in the market first up so obviously needed the run. Best horse in the race.

Infatuation ($4.80) – Outside the leader on a strong tempo not ideal but is getting deep into her campaign. That might bust her.

Pink Chandon ($5.50) – Really well supported in the market. On one rein a lot and happy to forgive. Think she is better than that.

Last Word: Mollynickers did enough to follow her.

MOLLYKNICKERS  is worth a follow

 Race 7: C S Hayes Stakes – 1400m

Tempo: Went a little moderate early.

Race Overview: This is potent. There are good horses everywhere in this race.  Margins sound, time good and late sectionals very good.

Riff Rocket ($7) – Absolute weapon this bloke. Carried the penalty over a trip less than his best and smashed the line. Wins everything.

King Colorado ($4) – Not quite the match of the winner but is flying. Worth challenger in all the good 3yo races.

Verdad ($7.5) – Good horse come back well.

Otago ($3.70) – Every chance but market liked him and ran well. Don’t give up on him.

Et Tu Brute ($26) – Sneaky little run out of his grade. Can drop in grade.

Last Word: Potent race. Follow closely.

RIFF ROCKET  is a weapon.

Race 8: Lightning Stakes – 1000m

Tempo: Went very slow for a Lightning Stakes.

Race Overview: They didn’t go out hard but they powered the last 400m. Race has gone well.

Imperatriz ($1.6) – I was happy to be against thinking her best at Moonee Valley was far better than her best elsewhere. Her figures on my database range from 115-117 for Moonee Valley and up to 113 elsewhere until this race where she rated 117. So that puts to bed my theory that she is far better at Moonee Valley than elsewhere so I guess I have to jump aboard the bandwagon!

Private Eye ($5) – Really good return in a less than ideal race shape. Chance in everything.

Espiona ($26) – Amazing effort over the 1000m. Not sure what the plan is but this opens up options.

Last Word: All aboard the Imperatriz bandwagon!

IMPERATRIZ  All Aboard!

Race 9: Elms Handicap – 1400m

Tempo: Went slow early.

Race Overview: Race has gone alright. The failure of the favourite murkies the waters.

Makram ($151) – Amazing return. Horses who win at those odds find it hard to hold that rating next start. Time will tell.

Jimmysstar ($1.26) – They went slow early so that justifies Craig Williams decision to take this horse to the lead. On my database I only have a slight regression in his rating. Happy to trust the market on this horse. I think hes good and don’t drop off.

Last Word: Market things Jimmysstar is a star.. it is rarely wrong.

MAKRAM  amazing return.

Race 10: BM (84) – 1400m

Tempo: Went very fast here.

Race Overview: Went out fast and slugged home. Those on-speed could have busted themselves for the prep.

Jennilala ($12) – Pinched a break on the backmarkers at the 300m when the leader dropped off. Great effort first up off a break, her racing pattern will let her win more races.

Punch Lane ($2.60) – Promising horse who was up in grade and had to deal with the hectic tempo. Blew out late and campaign is probably teetering at the moment.

Last Word: Hectic early tempo took the sting out of the finish of a lot of horses who may not have been at their peak fitness.

Horses to Follow:

  • Riff Rocket
  • Verdad
  • Et Tu Brute
  • Pink Chandon
  • Wiggum
  • Ouroboros

 

 

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