MOCCA'S MAIL - SANDGROPER SPECIAL LISTEN

THE FORECAST: THE 2000m QUESTION

Years ago, while sitting in the press room at Flemington, I asked the great Bart Cummings whether he thought a particular horse headed to the Cup would get the two miles.

They all run the distance, some just run it faster than others,” he said.

Good point Bart. Also, only the second sentence he ever said to me, the other being “Son, you’re a million to one to get back to Mordialloc let alone catch a plane,” during the famous Super Saturday storm of 2010.

For the record, I waded through the car park and caught that plane. Should have taken the old boy’s wager.

Bart Cummings .. I should have taken the bet.

Just as Bart was foolish to underestimate the lengths I would go to for an open bar at an engagement party in Brisbane, punters would be silly to write off PRIDE OF JENNI  at 2000m.

To the eye it’s hard for some to believe that a horse like her can sustain the brutality over 2000m. VO ROGUE,  MIGHT AND POWER  and SUNLINE  are just names in a book to a certain punting demographic – hard to imagine what you haven’t seen before.

On paper she’s bred to get the trip and strongly. Mum was a winner to 2200m and her grandma VOURAY  was an Oaks winner good enough to run fourth in a Caulfield Cup. Her old man PRIDE OF DUBAI  has left a few useful middle-distance sorts – anyone remember Willie Haggas’ autumn pirate Dubai Honour?

Yes, she’s tried and failed at the trip before, but that was on a bog track in Sydney 12 months ago, fair to say she’s in a different vein of form now.

PRIDE OF JENNI  don’t write her of at 2000m

The bigger query for me is whether MR BRIGHTSIDE  can run a winning 2000m if Jenni does what Jenni does and dials up the heat in front. Yeah, he was beaten a snout in a Cox Plate, but everything – and I mean everything – went right that day, will he respond the same way chasing a rampant Jenni?

Fewer questions can be asked of ATISHU  and her record at Flemington and 2000m. She’s been there twice, won twice and comes here off a very cruisy Blamey Stakes win. I’m in her corner for a minor upset.

ATISHU  for the win.

At Rosehill we’ll wait and see whether Kiwi filly ORCHESTRAL  brings beast mode to the Vinery Stakes (she will) and if POST IMPRESSIONIST  hands out another flogging in the Tancred (he probably will too). If Tulloch Stakes fave WYMARK  wins what is usually a very good Derby lead up, his owners will have to part with $44,000 to get him into the race (for the record, he will, and they will too).

BEST: Flemington R6 No. 12 See What I See

BEST EACH-WAY: Rosehill R6 No. 5 Airman

BEST ROUGHIE: Flemington R3 No. 6 Reasonable Point

 

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