THE FORECAST: CAN STORM BOY SWIM?

It’s the $40million question (or is it $30million?) depending on which kicker is kicked into gear, can star colt STROM BOY  handle a heavy track?

As sure as the sun rises in the east each morning, Randwick is facing a deluge and a wet track for Day 1 of The Championships on Saturday. And while a ball-tearing Doncaster and a ripper TJ Smith Stakes are the headline races, it’s the fate of STORM BOY  that perhaps is the most interesting point on the day.

The gloss might have come off slightly after STORM BOY’S  Golden Slipper defeat, but we’re still talking about the dominant colt of his generation. Curiously though, this horse, valued at up to $60million depending on success on the track, is yet to land a Group 1 race – he would be the most valuable non-Group 1 winner anywhere in the world today.

STORM BOY  is a dominate colt of this generation.

Imagine if he ends his juvenile season without a Group 1 win, he’s still got a Magic Millions Classic in the bag, but it doesn’t carry the same gravitas as a Group 1 does it? A conundrum for investor Coolmore, perhaps not for the owners who took cash and risk off the table (always sell!).

For mine, he’s the horse to beat again and he’s in the same boat (and a boat may well be needed) as every horse in the G1 Sires Produce – he has to handle the wet. PIERATA  was a bloody good wet tracker and maybe his progeny will be too; he has COLEMAN  and FEARLESS  running for him, I’m backing the latter each way.

PIERATA  is grouse in the wet.

The Doncaster is racing Viagra. You could fair dinkum have 10 picks and miss the winner; Australia is the home of big field mile handicap races, and this is an absolute pearler.

OBAMBURUMAI   was very good to me in the Golden Eagle during the spring, but Japanese horses typically don’t handle wet tracks, although this bloke has a soft track win against his name so hopefully he can swim. CELESTIAL LEGEND  and LADY LAGUNA  are in form horses at double figures well worth your time.

IMPERATRIZ   vs I WISH I WIN  in the TJ – or can wet trackers BUENOS NOCHES,  BELLA NIPPOTINA  or AFT CABIN  cause an upset? MAGIC TIME  for me each way, I WISH I WIN  the one to beat.

I WISH I WIN  is the one to beat.

I reckon we could be in for a boilover in the Derby.  Favourite RIFF ROCKET  is a good horse but he’s not dominant in his age group, his best weapon is his turn of foot and that may be dulled in the mud. I’ve had something on CAP FERRAT  and WYMARK, but if something like ADAGIO  wins it, I won’t fall over.

BEST: Caulfield R9 No. 3 First Immortal

BEST EACH-WAY: Caulfield R4 No. 11 Illative

BEST ROUGHIE: Randwick R9 No. 4 Cap Ferrat