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Flemington Review, March 2, 2024

Flemington Meeting Review

Date: 02/03/24

Track: Good 4

Rail: 2m

Race 1: Mares – 1100m

Tempo: Sat up early down the straight.

Race Overview: Was a real sprint home with no margins and slow overall time. I think they were entitled to run home a little quicker.

Sans Doute ($2.25) – Building a good record down the straight but there is a chance she is finding her level. If she goes away from Flemington then I would be against her.

Waltz On By ($4.60) – Nice, soft first up run from her. Will be better out to 1400m and probably the only horse I could take out of the race.

Cinderella Days ($2.70) – Change of camp and had a nice trial leading in before delivering a junk performance. Hard to follow up on that.

Last Word: Waltz On By the only one I could take out of a low ranking race.

WALTZ ON BY  takes out the first at Flemington

Race 2: BM (84) – 2000m

Tempo: Moderate tempo through the middle stages

Race Overview: Last 600m was ok and there was a margin to 3rd. I have the race rating below average based on the sectional data.

Aramco ($2.40) – Has put together 3 consistent ratings now. Although he is a nice enough horse, there is nothing in his performances to suggest he is going to keep going through the grades. His ceiling is not high.

Claim The Crown ($6) – 3rd run this campaign and brought down from Sydney. Good run. Can win in similar grade soon.

Last Word: Uninspiring race.

ARAMCO  was dominant but can he keep going through the grades?

Race 3: BM (78) – 1200m

Tempo: Very slow in the early stages.

Race Overview: 0.8L separated the first 6. The race has gone poorly.

Big Watch ($5.50) – 2nd win in a row down the straight. Happy to forget about him now.

Ivan’s Hero ($5.5) – Just couldn’t get to the best part of the track. He has some hope coming out of this as he was only first up and gets over 1400m. Did enough.

Moral Force ($8) – Jumped poorly off a break and kept finding the line. Was 3 lengths in front 50m after the line. I want to see him up to 1400m up on the speed.

Last Word: Race has gone junk, but Ivan’s Hero and Moral Force have some hope.

MORAL FORCE  needs 1400m.

Race 4: 2yo – 1000m

Tempo: Quick early tempo.

Race Overview: Gone well inside standard and there were great margins.

Bold Bastille ($2.10) – This is what she was expected to do last start but they were finding it hard to lead at Caufield that day. She’s very good but can’t see how she would win a Slipper given how many good on-pace horses there are this season. If they aim a little lower they could win a lot of money!

Drifting ($3.30) – Heavily backed and went enormous. Can follow.

Grinzinger Love ($15) – Massive run on debut. Will win races.

Last Word: Race has flown. Happy to forget anything past the 3rd horse though as they got beaten out of sight.

BOLD BASTILLE  can she win The Slipper?

Race 5: 3yo Fillies – 1100m

Tempo: Strong enough early tempo.

Race Overview: Blanket finish but they did run inside standard.

Diamond Decorator ($12) – There was hesitation in the market with this horse as its last start at Caulfield was supposed to be flattered by the bias but that race did rate well. Solid performance here again.

Illative ($9) – There’s a bit of an engine there. Still eligible for a maiden so can be dropped back in class and win multiple races.

Moesha ($5.5) – Crying out to get to 1400m and a jockey change.

Last Word: This is their level.

DIAMOND DECORATOR … Solid.

Race 6: BM (84) – 1600M

Tempo: Right on benchmark to the 600m

Race Overview: Busted the clock and won by a margin.

Another Wil ($1.50) – I said it after his win last start and will say it again, this IS a Group 1 horse. So many options for him but think he will be a Weight For Age horse in the Spring.

Last Word: Anything with Another Wil form will be liked by the market.

ANOTHER WIL  bonafide Group 1 horse

Race 7: Inglis Sprint – 1200m

Tempo: They went out quick here.

Race Overview: Good margins and good time. Some really nice horses in this race.

Estriella ($3.2)  – Showed her versatility by leading here. I thought she could’ve won the Oakleigh Plate last week if they went that way. Anyway, she’s a Group 1 horse.

Robrick ($17) – Massive run. Hard to beat next start.

Caballus ($3.5) – Lost no admirers here and probably got a little lost down the straight.

Mansiere ($101) – Sneaky run for a horse is eligible for much easier races.

Last Word: Follow with confidence.

ESTRIELLA  was the best bet of the day.

Race 8: Australian Guineas – 1600m

Tempo: Strong tempo.

Race Overview: Ran inside standard time and late sectionals were fine. Few Derby-type horses here who will use this as a good platform.

Southport Tycoon ($19) – Had the perfect run but nice win. Don’t think he’s particularly looking for further so not sure what they do.

Veight ($4.80) – Think he was entitled to win the race given the run he had and was a bit weak late. Not one of mine.

Riff Rocket ($2.5) – Much more dour here than he was first up and probably needed to get clear earlier. I’m still a big rap for this horse and can win the big 3yo Group One’s in Sydney.

King Colorado ($9) – Is he as good as the market is saying? I’m not so sure.

Last Word: Don’t drop off Riff Rocket.

RIFF ROCKET  don’t lose confidence.

Race 9: Blamey Stakes – 1600m

Tempo: Moderate early tempo.

Race Overview: Poor overall time and no real margins. I’m worried.

Atishu ($4) – Great ride by Shinn. Would be disappointed if it didn’t win from there.

Ayrton ($7) – No luck when he needed it.

Makram ($9) – Airborne this horse. Can bounce into either its 3rd up run or 4th up.

Last Word: Worried about this race as a formline.

Race 10: BM (84) – 1400m

Tempo: Went quick.

Race Overview: They slugged home late and were entitled to run quicker overall time given the early tempo.

Aaran Bay ($4) – Entitled to get beaten given he sat outside the leader on a hot tempo. Only horse I can take out of the race.

Last Word: Shame on the rest of the field for not getting past Arran Bay.

Horses to Follow:

  • Moral Force
  • Drifting
  • Grinzinger Love
  • Another Wil
  • Estriella
  • Robrick
  • Riff Rocket

 

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