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Flemington Meeting Review – January 20, 2024

Flemington  Meeting Review 

Date: 20/01/24

Track: Good 4

Rail: 9m

Race 1: BM (100) – 1600m

Tempo: Moderate early tempo.

Race Overview: They didn’t go out very fast but also didn’t come home very well.

Bermadez ($2) – Was the class runner in the race and had the cold sit on the leaders. Entitled to win but took the whole straight to wear them down. Wouldn’t hang my hat on this race but we know what level Bermadez has in him.

Superazi ($2.2) – Was backing up from a decent win the previous Saturday but did start $16 in that race. They very rarely hold a rating off a big SP like that.

Beehunter ($7) – Seemingly out of form but was specked in betting. On the minimum and market knew it was going to lead. Every chance.

Last Word: Not a race I am excited about.

 – BERMUDEZ  was the class runner in Race 1

Race 2: BM (78) – 2520m

Tempo: Slow early tempo.

Race Overview: Was a sprint home. Some margins opened up towards the end of the race but rated just worse than average for a race of this class.

One Last Kiss ($5) – No interest in the betting for it. Was coming off an unlucky run last start but has been up a long time. Decent win but unlikely to have improvement to come this time in.

Galilaeus ($2.15) – Really liked this horse coming into the race. Had a good jockey change and D.Lane jumped it straight out into the perfect position but that’s as good as it got. The slow tempo was blamed for its performance, but I have seen enough to sack it now. Very poor.

Last Word: Couldn’t label any horses in this race as a horse to follow.

ONE LAST KISS  set for bigger and better?

Race 3: No Metro Wins – 1200m

Tempo: Sat up down the straight

Race Overview: It’s the weakest class race on the day but didn’t rate well and no margins. First signs that the inside was the place to be.

Southern Fire ($81) – Legitimate bm58 horse. Benefitted by the bias to the inside. Had its birthday.

Shaime ($4.50) – I think he has ability but running in this race puts a drag on his form line.

Kiko ($3.60) – Rated well its in maiden and solid in the market here. Never in the right part of the track and probably a forgive.

Last Word: Kiko a forgive but race has gone putrid. Buyer beware.

SOUTHERN FIRE  was on fire in the third.

Race 4: BM (78) – 1100m

Tempo: Nice enough early tempo

Race Overview: Race has gone ok, decent margins and time. Going to be able to forgive some horses who weren’t in the right part of the track.

Power Ballard ($6.5) – Was coming out of a good race at Warwick Farm won by Shaken but the key here was drawing Barrier 1 and having first access to the travelator along the rail. Good win and can’t hang him on the bias advantage.

Stefi Magnetica ($3.80) – Soft late in the market and never in the right part of the track. Massive run and a horse to follow.

Austmarr ($2.9) – Another who was disadvantaged by the bias but was off the map in the betting. Didn’t go as well as Stefi Magnetica but still a horse to follow.

Last Word: Happy to follow this race.

Horses to Follow:

  • Stefi Magnetica
  • Austmarr

 – STEFI MAGNETICA  one to follow.

Race 5: BM (78) – 1100m

Tempo: Decent tempo in the middle stages.

Race Overview: Plenty of nice horses in this race and some that weren’t in the right part of the track. Happy to move forward with this race.

Sans Doute ($4) – I had its last race rating really well but was concerned that it was going to be back on the inside. Once the race came around it was the place to be and got a dream run through. Held the rating from last start and is a nice horse in the making.

A Little Deep ($6) – I had it lagging behind Sans Doute and Kin in ratings before this race. Really improved here and can be followed.

Kin ($2.3) – Was coming out of 2 good rating races and, understandably, started favourite. Punters will be getting sick of this horse but the syndicate/professional punters, who dictate the Starting Price, will stick with it. Was plain but will be in the market again next start.

Prairie Flower ($6.50) – Market loved it with D.Lane going on board. Don’t sack.

Last Word: Think there will be winners out of this race.

SANS DOUTE  is a horse in the making.

Race 6: BM (70) – 1600m

Tempo: Went slow here.

Race Overview: I have the race rating worse than average for the class. Margins not great.

El Soleado ($5) – Absolute gem of a ride which took advantage of the hot rail. It’s going to find it hard to hold that rating and get all factors in its favour again. Looking to oppose next start.

Botany ($3) – Regressed from her first up rating but that is understandable. Think you will find her peak runs will be 3rd up (or even 4th up) over 2000m and beyond.

Last Word: Botany probably the only horse I could follow out of the race.

BOTANY  worth a follow.

Race 7: BM (84) – 1200m

Tempo: Went quick in front

Race Overview: Good early tempo meant it was a real test for horses who weren’t at their fittest.

Jungle Jim ($3.50) – Given how the track was racing, and the fact that this horse was the only obvious leader, it’s amazing it didn’t shorten up close to the jump. Has put together 3 ratings at around the same level now but was on the back up and had the bias to suit. I would expect him to regress.

Rey Magnerio ($3.60) – Got soft late in the market but stuck to his task against a horse who had everything to suit. Was only 2nd up off a break and I think he can bounce off that.

Dehorned Unicorn ($3.60) – Off the map in betting. Was offering the alternate form line but I think the trainer/jockey combo probably the key to the market move. The disappointment of the race and can go back to NSW with his tail between his legs.

Last Word: Happy to sack Dehorned Unicorn.

Horse to Follow: Rey Magnerio.

REY MAGNERIO  , one to watch for the future.

 

Race 8: BM (70) – 2000m

Tempo: Solid tempo set.

Race Overview: Ran well inside standard time. Finished in a clump behind the winner.

Aramco ($11) – Won like a $2 shot but that’s what you get when you put D.Lane on your horse. Improving with every run and happy to follow off that win.

Lauding ($12) – Put down a marker with this race. I think he can win in a similar grade next time.

Oceans Above & Divine Purpose ($4.60) – Both putrid and happy to sack.

Last Word: First 2 home have gone good.

AMARCO  was dominant at HQ.

Race 9: BM (84) – 1400m

Tempo: All the jockeys aware of the bias now causing a strong tempo.

Race Overview: Good separation in the field and time was solid.

So Risque ($16) – Had been racing well but stepped up a level in terms of ratings. Can’t really fault.

He’s Our Bonneval ($19) – Really good run first up. Rated really consistently last campaign at a high level. Should win races this time in.

Bel Air ($3.10) – The disappointment in the race. Had a nice run behind the leader and couldn’t even get past it. Time to sack if he goes again this time in.

Last Word: Think the form will hold up from this race.

Horse to Follow: He’s Our Bonneval.

HE’S OUR BONNEVAL  goes toe to toe with SO RISQUE

Race 10: BM (70) – 1000m

Tempo: Strong.

Race Overview: Ran great overall time, good margins and ran home well. Gone well.

Mornington Glory ($5) – Absolutely flying and had Midtown Boss form. Nice win and that was career peak rating.

Johnny Rocker ($3.9) – The horse to follow out of the meeting. Great first up run.

Last Word: Follow this race.

Horse To Follow: Johnny Rocker

Horses to Follow:

  • Stefi Magnetica
  • Austmarr
  • Rey Magnerio
  • He’s Our Bonneval
  • Johnny Rocker
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