THE PUNTING MONOLOGUE "AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS SPECIAL LISTEN

Flemington Meeting Review

Date: 17/12/22

Track:  Good 3

Pattern: Off the fence in the straight races. Pretty even other than that.

Race 1: 3yo Bm70 – (1200m)

Tempo: Sat up early. Sprint home

Race Overview: Decent margins. Track was on fire so they ran good time but if you compare it against standard, taking into account the speed of the track, then its gone slightly outside standard.

She Dances ($10): Made its own luck in front. Probably entitled to win considering she was in the right part of the track whilst getting a soft lead. High % play type filly who has a ceiling.

River Noire ($2.2): I was keen on her in the Punters Monologue before the race. Thought J.Kah could’ve slid up and eyeballed the leader but maybe wasn’t travelling well enough. Think she looks a 1400m around Caulfield horse.

River Ribble ($4.40): Market wanted her ($5 into $4.40) but always in the wrong part of the track. Forgiving but last 100m was so-so.

Last Word: Forgiving of the horses on the inside, Prairie Flower ran well considering.

Race 2: Bm70 F&M – (1100m)

Tempo: Went out 3L inside standard.

Race Overview: Just inside standard but entitled to given early tempo. No Margins, I’m worried.

For Real Life ($9): Was dropping class and had the suck run you needed on this tempo. Nice win but getting deep into the prep.

Dazzing Lucy ($9.50): Good effort first up on a strong tempo. Got a City win in her this campaign.

Cotel ($3.70): Market spat her out and rightfully so. Suck run at Cranbourne at previous run and terrible late sectionals. She has some ability but the engagement of C.Hefel is just mindboggling. No great ceiling on this filly so interesting to see what the next step is.

Last Word: Not a race I want to be following based on times and margins.

Race 3: Bm84 – (1600m)

Tempo: Even tempo, a little quicker than I expected before the race.

Race Overview: Just outside standard and lacked margins.

Pounding ($3.30): This was such a bet.. I got caught up in the fact it was going from a very quick tempo to a slow tempo and thought it might struggle. But in reality, had a ginormous jockey change, Detonator Jack form and was on the back up.. all massive plus factors and the reason it should have been a bet. Huge lay next start, as it has used up those factors now and the race rated poorly.

Arran Bay ($3.60): Last race rated poorly but I got sucked into the fact it had been so solid in the market at first 2 runs back and was ready to peak 3rd up. Not sure why Spain wasn’t more positive out of the gates. Even though it made no difference, it makes me wonder how much homework he had done.

Unanimous ($6): Looked a good lay. Tempo against but campaign is going nowhere by the looks of it.

Excelleration ($16): Maybe the only horse you could take out of the race as it has the most improvement.

Last Word: Pounding.. Lay, lay, lay next start.

Race 4: Bm70 – (1800m)

Tempo: Very slow in the middle stages.

Race Overview: They’ve run home alright but overall time is right on standard.

Hasseltoff ($9): Geez Dabernig is a good trainer, makes you wonder what was happening at Lindsay Park. Had a really nice progression into the race, having improved at every run. Got its win for the campaign, might have one more run in it, but if you got your money out of him I would move on.

Awesome John ($3.70): Inspired bit of placement. It’s form in Sydney was solid but lacked any real substance in regards to times. Just missed, could entertain in a similar race but can’t help but feel like this was its opportunity.

Desperado ($5.50): Went from a hot tempo at the ‘bool to a slow tempo here and it told. Slugged home late. Disappointing.

Last Word: Can take Awesome John out of the race.. maybe.

Race 5: Bm84 – (1200m)

Tempo: Strong early tempo.

Race Overview: This is another race where I fluffed my lines but we will get to that in a sec… On standard for the class.

Invincible Caviar ($3.10): She’s good.. she’s not great. I thought she was entitled to win a little easier given the seamless run she had into the race. Market loved her and maybe there is more there.

My Yankee Girl ($7): Once she recovers from the beating she copped from the fly swatter, then I think she is ready to win 3rd up.

Munhamek ($5): Absolutely disgraceful bet by me.. I thought the form lines and class factor would carry it a long way. 1400m back to 1200m, wet to dry, inside gate…all reasons to not back him. Nick Ryan is a great trainer but not a miracle worker.

Dance to Dubai ($20): Strange run, was going nowhere, then poked up to nearly win on the inside. Get Kah or Nolen on it next start and she’s ready.

Last Word: Stewards got it bang on with the whip protest.. settle down Twitter, it changes nothing.

Race 6: JRA Trophy – (2600m)

Tempo: Slow in the early stages but quickened up from the 800m.

Race Overview: First 2 were in a class of their own.

Persan ($2.60): Another learning experience for me. Was suited with the 60kg max top weight, was down in grade and mapped well. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but this was staring me in the face. This was his race, good margins to 3rd, hard horse to place but going well.

Nobel Heights ($3.60): I had a query on the strength of that Pakenham Cup form but ran really well. Got a win in it next start.

Cormorant ($4.60): Surprised the market liked it out of that putrid Werribee Cup.

Last Word:  First 2 only.

Race 7: Kensington Stakes – (1000m)

Tempo: Solid enough.

Race Overview: Some horses were blessed with the right part of the track, others weren’t. Going to take some dissecting.

Ashford Street ($11): Love the horse but had the perfect run. Going to be hard for him to replicate the rating next start.

Yulong Command ($5): Going well. Get him back around a bend.

Rose Quartz ($2.15): Run of the race. Was in No Man’s Land, and still kept trying to let down. Ready.

Esta La Roca ($4.40): Get her back to the Valley. Did enough.

Last Word: Race overall didn’t rate that well but can find some winners out of it.

Race 8: – Open Hcp – (1400m)

Tempo: Strong early tempo.

Race Overview: Inside standard and some winners to take out of it.

Nicolini Vito ($7): Had Pal D’Oro form which may prove to be the form of the Summer. Great win, didn’t really get a tag into the race but kept finding the line. Can win again.

Corner Pocket ($4): Run of the race for mine. Outside the lead on a strong tempo and was still there at the end. 3rd up next time is ready to win, doubt we get a jockey change though.

Last Word: Corner Pocket is ready.

Race 9: Bm70 – (1400m)

Tempo: Farcical early speed.

Race Overview: Little bit of separation in the field but the slow early tempo meant they couldn’t run any time.

He’s Xceptional ($9): Was entitled to win with that run. Flew at Wodonga last start as well but can’t help but think he got anyway with one here.

Victory Bay ($4): Clearly the horse to take out of it. Market loved it and can win one of these $80k Saturday races.

Last Word:  Victory Bay.

Horses to Follow

· Rose Quartz

· Corner Pocket

· Victory Bay

· Dance To Dubai

Lay Next Start

· Pounding

Tune into the Punters Monologue covering The Valley Sat, Doomben Sat, and Sandown-Hillside on Boxing Day. 

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