THE PUNTING MONOLOGUE "AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS SPECIAL LISTEN

Caulfield Cup Preview

The first of the big three of the Melbourne Spring. It’s been wet and wild in Victoria, but Caulfield Cup Day is here, and fingers crossed this ludicrous weather doesn’t put yet another cloud over what’s been a sensational Caulfield Cup Carnival. Here’s my best for the Caulfield Cup.

Benaud was super last week against the best WFA horses in the country and was super through the line. Steps up to 2400m again, a distance where he very nearly caused an upset against Hitosu in the Australian Derby after a very similar preparation. Heavy track isn’t a concern as he’s had some very solid runs on rain affected ground. The wide draw does look concerning, but he is going to get back in the field anyways and shouldn’t find any trouble when they stack around the corner. He is only a maiden winner but has been racing far better than one and this looks like his grand final in contrast to others. He’s primed to win this and the conditions more than suit him.

Knights Order was good last start and is a leader who loves wet tracks only missing the placings once on heavy surfaces. Has won twice over the trip and if there’s a bias, he’ll most likely be the one to benefit. With minimal speed should be able to cross from that wide alley with no dramas. Could be highly competitive at odds here and think that he will be fighting out the finish.

Smokin’ Romans has been in career best form this preparation. Was super when winning the Turnbull and comes into this very well weighted. Has won twice on heavy tracks and over this distance. Has drawn extremely well to sit closer here and should be fighting out the finish again. Clearly a justifiable favourite, I just think that he might be slightly under the odds but will definitely be in the finish and is an each way hope.

Alegron beat Benaud last start in good style and does run well over the mile and eight furlongs. Has ran well on heavy tracks in the past but does rise in grade and has a substantial gap between runs which concerns me. Should be three deep and midfield with cover though and will be chasing them down late. Sneaky place chance.

Montefilia was good in this race last year finishing fourth and with a heavy track could be really competitive again. Was average last start but I think she can bounce back from that run and be really competitive here. Is a group 1 winner over the distance and should just slot in behind the speed from the draw. Place chance.

Gold Trip had every chance last start but was good enough for me. Rises in distance and has placed twice on a heavy surface before. Big weight does worry me, but he is good enough for the exotics with his international form lines and should find a nice spot midfield to be running them down late.

Benaud is my on top hope. I think this is his grand final and will be highly competitive here with an identical preparation to last time in. I have the favourite in for second in Smokin’ Romans and Knights Order in for third. I think Alegron will round out the top four in what looks to be a very interesting race.

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