THE PUNTING MONOLOGUE "AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS SPECIAL LISTEN

Victoria Derby Day Meeting Review

Date: 29/10/22

Track: Soft 7. Probably more a Soft 6 at worst.

Pattern: Track raced beautifully.

Race 1: Carbine Club Stakes – (1600m)

Tempo: 2 lengths inside standard to the 600m.

Race Overview: Nothing wrong with the times and margins, but looking at the race beforehand it definitely lacked the quality of previous years.

Perfect Thought ($26): Enjoyed getting back on a firmer surface, blinkers went off and Craig went on. 3 Wide with cover on a strong tempo is where you want to be at Flemington but did a good job. SP the concern.

Pungo ($3.3): Might have gone a little quick in front but was pretty weak. The punters went looking for the different formline but it didn’t pay off here. Last 200m was terrible. Doubt we see him again this prep.

Tijuana ($5.5): Was 8 ratings points ahead of any other runner in this Set Weights race but was a bit plain. Not in the right part of the track but has his limitations and probably highlights the weakness of the Caulfield Guineas this year.

Last Word: Winner has a chance to be a horse but the SP is a big concern.

Race 2: Archer Stakes – (2500m)

Tempo: Went quick for this distance. 4.5 lengths inside standard.

Race Overview: Good separation in the field at the finish here. Well inside standard. This race went much better on figures than it did visually.

Surefire ($1.9): I walked away from this race thinking he was entitled to win a lot easier but he has gone well on figures. I expect him to become a horse next time in.

Serpentine ($10): The moment a horse carries these colours you automatically put a line through it. Overraced and ran really well. When will Lloyd ever train  own another winner?

Alegron ($4.6): Can go in the bin. Couldn’t lift its legs.

Last Word: Think Surefire is legit. Wait for next prep with it.

Race 3: Rising Fast Stakes – (1200m)

Tempo: Sat up early as is usually the case down the straight.

Race Overview: Slow times and no separation in the field. Race has gone very ordinary.

Argentia ($9.5): Hopefully the idea of trying to get this horse over 1400m+ is over. Just because it is a get back horse doesn’t mean its looking for further. Don’t think she is a G1 horse which is what they will be chasing.

Triple Missile ($5.5): Line chaser but has a terrible pattern. 2 runs back have been good. Low % betting proposition.

Generation ($6): Not even J-Mac can get this horse to go. Never again.

Last Word: Not a race to follow at all.

Race 4: Wakeful Stakes – (2000m)

Tempo: Very very strong. 12L inside standard to the 600m

Race Overview: Could be a complete gut-buster for those going to the Oaks. Ride won the race. Those back in the field were busted by the strong tempo.

Zennzella ($10): Grown a leg since the change of camp this prep. Big jock change here and it won it the race. Potentially a real gutbuster and ill be against it in the Oaks.

Jenny Jerome ($4.2): Like the positivity in the ride but tempo brought it undone. Think it will be the last time they try to ride it forward.

As Time Goes By ($4.6): Every possible.

Last Word: First 3 home settled rails in run.

Race 5: Linlithgow Stakes – (1400m)

Tempo: Very strong tempo set by Poland.

Race Overview: Good Margins, time was ok but probably entitled to break standard a little more. Rain during the race probably didn’t help.

Old Flame ($5): Copped a bad ride last start. Savaged the line and good margin to 3rd.

Turaath ($4.4): Too Bad to be true.

Last Word: Winner only for me out of this race.

Race 6: Coolmore Stud Stakes – (1200m)

Tempo: Really strong tempo for a straight race.

Race Overview: Winner is a star, always a good form race. Good time and margins.

In Secret (3.1): Love that they avoided the temptation of the Everest for this. She’s a star.

Jacquinot ($4.4): Bit of a headscratcher. Should have been suited by the strong tempo. Might have gone to the well one too many times this campaign.

C’est Magique ($41): Has come a long way. SP a concern but hard to argue with the performance.

Buenos Noches ($9): Settled a long way back and Jacquinot never took him into the race. Great run. Love Froggy but might be time to try someone else.

Last Word: Expect the form to hold up.

Race 7: Victoria Derby – (2500m)

Tempo: Strong tempo. Legitimate staying test.

Race Overview: Couldn’t even break standard after the strong early tempo.

Manzoice ($21): Always had stayer written all over him and the strong tempo suited. Think he becomes a Waller plodder for the rest of his career.

Sharp ‘N’ Smart ($2.9): Great run. Will be better suited at 2000m next campaign.

Aberfeldie Boy ($101): Should have been in the finish. Real one-pacer who probably highlights the strength of the race.

Berkeley Square ($6): Held up a bit but didn’t exactly savage the line. Not convinced this will be his best trip.

Last Word: As they say.. Good Luck to connections but this was a very weak race.

Race 8: Empire Rose Stakes – (1600m)

Tempo: Mid-race slow down then She’s Licketysplit tried to take off from the 600m.

Race Overview: No margins or time but it doesn’t matter. Icebath got her G1.

Icebath ($11): This is how she needs to be ridden. Deserved win but is a low % play in terms of betting.

Mirra Vision ($61): Career peak. Good luck repeating.

Excelida ($71): Career peak. Good luck repeating.

La Crique ($1.85): Hard to make excuses with her. Maybe exposed when the 3yo took off but clutching at straws. Believe the SP and be forgiving.

Last Word: Believe the SP.

Race 9: Furphy Sprint – (1100m)

Tempo: Sat up in the mid stages.

Race Overview: They haven’t broken standard but that is due to the slow early tempo. Ran home well.

Asfoora ($3.1): Regressed ratings wise but got the job done. Next prep is her time. Still confident she will win a G1.

Veranskova ($19): Loves the straight. Nice run.

Zapateo ($8): Boy oh Boy. Forgive. Watch for the overbet next start.

Last Word:  Still think Asfoora is up to a Group 1.

No Horses to Follow this week as Derby Day is the Grand Final for a lot of horses.

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