THE PUNTING MONOLOGUE "AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS SPECIAL LISTEN

Moonee Valley Meeting Review

Date: 21/01/23

Track: Good 4

Rail: True

Race 1: 2yo Open Hcp (1200)

Tempo: They tried to go quick at the start but these horses aren’t very fast.

Race Overview: This is off-season racing at its best (worst). Race has gone very slow, no margins.

Amur ($3.5) – Two of the lowest wins you will see to kick off its career. Won’t win another race.

Some People Callme ($2.9) – Showed some early speed. Could maybe go back to the country and win a maiden but that might be its level.

International ($3.3) – Next start may be in a Townsville maiden.

Last Word: Very, very worried about this race.

Race 2: Bm78 (1000m)

Tempo: Went pretty quick here early.

Race Overview: No real margins but time was ok.

Unflinching ($1.9) – Sat outside the lead and gave a good kick. Was soft in the market but I put that down to the jockey. Can win again this prep.

Lady Solly ($9.5) – Nice Return. Keep her to the Valley.

Way To The Stars ($5.5) – I was completely against this horse on the Punters Monologue. I want to be against any horse that draws barrier 1 at the Doomben 1050m leads and wins. They very rarely hold their rating as that barrier is a huge advantage as the 1050m is right on the turn. No luck in this race but might be headed for a break now.

Bifrost ($5) – Never in the race. Has ability and ran good time at preview start at Stony Creek. Maybe the Valley isn’t its go.

Last Word: I can follow the winner and pick the eyes out of the rest.

Race 3: Bm70 (1000m)

Tempo: Jillette really ran them along.

Race Overview: Inside standard time, no margins..I am going to move away from this race as a form reference.

Tillotson ($9) – What a camp. Think Dabernig is doing really good things with his horses, makes you wonder what was happening at Lindsay Park? Having said that, this horse got a dream run in behind the speed and didn’t exactly savage the line. I’m against going forward.

Cotel ($4.4) – Back to 1000m didn’t suit but needs a jockey and, even then, I don’t know if its any good. Market spat it out.

Last Word:  We are getting close to the Autumn carnival so this may have been the chance for a lot of these horses.

Race 4: 3yo Bm70 (1500m)

Tempo: Field The Moment ran them along.

Race Overview: This race has gone really well. They went out well inside standard and still ran home well. Great margins.

Shuffle Dancer ($1.55) – Nice horse. Didn’t all go to plan but sat behind a hot tempo and showed a turn of foot. Follow.

Field The Moment ($8.5) – Love the change in racing pattern this campaign. In the right situation, it wins next start.

Last Word: Follow the first 3 home.

Race 5: Bm78 (2040m)

Tempo: Strong early tempo.

Race Overview: They have just gone inside standard which was set up by the early tempo. Poor late sectionals.

Ain’tnodeeldun ($4) – Blended into the race at the right time when there was messiness in front of it. Nice ride.

Arran Bay ($8) – Probably the run of the race as completely disadvantaged when they took off around him. He is getting deep into the campaign and hard to recommend as a horse to follow.

Last Word: What a mess. Sacking this race.

Race 6: Bm64 (1200m)

Tempo: Outside standard early.

Race Overview: Sprinted home off a moderate tempo, made it hard for anything back in the field. Good margin to 3rd.

The Hass ($4.6) – I didn’t know what to make of this horse after its first up win (time wasn’t great). Good win here and given its racing pattern is always going to be a high % play. Come back better this time in.

Harbin ($7.50) – Liked this horse on Saturday. Was dropping in grade off a Bm70 at Warrnambool that I think will be a good form race. Was this its chance? Maybe but ran well.

Ice Pick Nick ($2.20) – Crikey. The Jamie Kah effect on the market was in full flight. Off the map and very solid. Really stunk it up. SP profile is the only the thing saving it for its next start, the only thing.

Last Word: First 2 home were good.

Race 7: Bm84 (1200m)

Tempo: Mid race slow down.

Race Overview: Inside standard and margins.

Dance To Dubai ($2.4) – Has really laid down the marker at its past 2 starts, Best figures are at the Valley really hard to pick holes in. You won’t go broke backing these sorts of horses.

Sacred Palace ($10) – Had a nice run in behind them but ran well. Should be ready 3rd up.

Bill The Boxer ($4.8) – Caught wide and entitled to get worried but I was worried about this horse after its first up win. Hard to back off that run.

Last Word:  Moody camp airborne.

Race 8: Bm100 (1600m)

Tempo: Solid enough tempo.

Race Overview: Race has gone on standard time.

Pounding ($3.20) – I was completely against this horse coming off a peak run when it was on the back up. Who am I to doubt Peter Moody?

Corner Pocket ($5) – Towed the field up to the leader. Good run. Bit of gas left in the tank this campaign.

Savannah Cloud ($4.8) – I’ve been against this horse all campaign and fell into it here. Shame on me.

Last Word: Corner Pocket may be the best one to follow out of this.

Race 9: Bm70 (1600m)

Tempo: Well inside standard for the first half of the race.

Race Overview: Time alright but these horses are genuine BM70 horses.

Ima Shelby ($12) – Nice smooth run into the race. Good ride and camp have it flying.

Hennessy Lad ($3.6) – Stuck in the coffin and ran out of room. The only 3yo in the race so the horse with the most upside.

Euro Dandy ($4.80) – Nice enough run.

San Fabrizio ($15) – You just know Waller will have something picked out for this horse shortly.

Last Word: San Fabrizio can win a race shortly.

Horses to Follow

– Shuffle Dancer

– Field The Moment

– San Fabrizio

– Lady Solly

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