THE PUNTING MONOLOGUE "AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS SPECIAL LISTEN

Lightning Stakes Day Meeting Review

Date: 18/02/23

Track: Good 4

Rail: True

Race 1: Bm84 – 1600m

Tempo: Lot of pressure early.

Race Overview: Race has gone solid. Decent time, decent margins, happy to follow horses out of this race.

So You See ($7) – Really solid in the market which you needed to see after the last start excuses. Great run in transit, solid win. Near enough to a career peak.

Monarch Of Egypt ($8) – Gave the winner a nice tow into the race. Solid run. Got a win in it this campaign.

Wishlor Lass ($4.6) – I got this one wrong before the race. Was soft in the market despite J.Kah going on board. Didn’t have much luck in behind them but not convinced it wins if it gets a run. Send it to the paddock now please and she will come back better.

Last Word: Wishlor Lass a big fat lay if they go to the well again.

Race 2: The Vanity – 1400m

Tempo: Good tempo

Race Overview: Race has gone well.

Wollombi ($12) – Specked in betting late. Very progressive. Race panned out perfectly and blended in at the right time. Can’t fault the win.

See You In Heaven ($4.2) – Carried the penalty. Really good effort. Ready to peak next start.

Papillon Club ($8) – No luck from gate. Solid tempo didn’t help. Great effort.

Nunthorpe ($5) – Not disappointed with this run at all. Outside the lead on a good tempo. Stuck on well.

Last Word: Not sure where these fillies head but happy with this race as a form line.

Race 3: Talindert Stakes – 1100m

Tempo: Sat up a little in the middle stages.

Race Overview: Last 200m only fair. These are some very ordinary 2yo’s considering the hopes the connections have for these horses.

Maharba ($3.3) – The market just wanted to be with anything that didn’t have Melbourne form. Good change of camp, absolutely off the map and got the cash. Well done to connections but let’s not get away from the fact he beat walkers. It just walked a little bit quicker.

Amur ($5.5) – I have said after both starts that it is no good. The only thing that stopped it from starting $10+ was J-Mac going on. Forget about him.

Last Word: If I had to choose a horse to follow out of this race, Princess Duhallow, if I had too…

Race 4: Bm84 – 2000m

Tempo:  Absolute crawl up in front.

Race Overview: Time was slow, was a sprint home. Don’t hold much hope for the horses behind the winner.

Nobel Heights ($11) – Sat wide, albeit on a slow tempo, and won well. Was off 48 days and back from 2800m to 2000m. Think he’s going well but beat a limited bunch.

Arran Bay ($6) – Deep into the campaign. Every chance.

Fighting Arrow ($6) – Tempo against.

Last Word: Hard to make a case for anything other than the winner.

Race 5: Group 3 Mares – 1400m

Tempo: Solid tempo.

Race Overview: Good time all round. Race has gone well.

Annavisto ($2.15) – Flown here. Did a similar figure first up last time at this track and distance. It’s a G1 figure but when she has got to G1 company she hasn’t quite performed. Flat track/first up bully? The jury is out.

Wrote Of Arataki ($5.5) – Brave run. Outside the lead on that testing tempo. Ready for the paddock now.

Excelida ($5.5) – Nice run in high rating race and has juice left in the tank this campaign. Ready to peak.

Last Word: Excelida the one to follow for mine.

Race 6: CS Hayes – 1400m

Tempo: Went quick early.

Race Overview:  No margins, time only fair.

Elliptical ($7) – Got the job done here but is limited. He’s not winning the Australian Guineas, trust me.

Attrition ($4) – No luck from sticky gate. Nice horse. Forgivable but has the stink of this race on him.

Bank Maur ($3.9) – The most disappointing horse in the race. Market wanted him, hard to back him off that.

Last Word: The Australian Guineas winner won’t be coming out of this race.

Race 7: Lightning Stakes – 1000m

Tempo: Times say they sat up a little early but there was pressure throughout.

Race Overview: Plenty of winners to come out of this race.

Coolangatta ($9) – Good filly, just not one of mine. Think there is better horses to follow out of the race.

I Wish I Win ($9.5) – The next 18 months of racing and this horse will stamp himself as the best horse in Australia. Can win anything.

Nature Strip ($2) – Never travelled like the winner. You just know he will peak on the TJ Smith Stakes Day but I think you are better off not backing him.

Bella Nipotina ($14) – Wins the William Reid, absolutely flying, goes better at the Valley. Repeat, wins the William Reid.

Last Word: If you didn’t hear me, Bella Nipotina wins the William Reid. Oh yeah, and I Wish I Win is the best horse in Australia.

Race 8: Listed – 1400m

Tempo: Decent tempo.

Race Overview:  Just outside standard for the class.

Scallopini ($7) – Great ride. This is his level. Doubt he can win any better races but is always competitive in these races.

Munhamek ($6) – Keeps running well. Surely he has no improvement left.

Daytona Bay ($4) – I got this horribly wrong. I loved the drop in weight, J.Kah going on and mapping well but I forgot about the fact the race it came out of went awful. Once it didn’t lead it was never going to win.

Uncle Bryn ($6.5) – This is the horse. Absolute barrier trial. Can win something good.

Last Word:  Uncle Bryn is the horse to follow.

Race 9: Bm84 – 1200m

Tempo: Went very fast early.

Race Overview: Good margins, and solid time.

D’jumbuck ($3.6) – Off the map and never, ever going to lose. Nice horse and can keep winning.

Jungle Jim ($3.6) – Little firmer in betting than I thought he would be. Went quick and entitled to fold. Needs a spell.

Red Hot Nicc ($6.5) – Entitled to drop off given the tempo. Great effort.

Last Word: Follow the winner.

Horses to Follow

Excelida – coming out of a high rating race. Ready to peak.

I Wish I win – follow in anything

Bella Nipotina – Wins the William Reid

Uncle Bryn – Nice horse, fitter for the barrier trial.

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