THE PUNTING MONOLOGUE "AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS SPECIAL LISTEN

Flemington’s Turnbull Stakes Day Meeting Review

Turnbull Stakes Day Meeting Review

Date: 1/10/22

Track: Good 4

Pattern: What a track. No excuses for any horse.

Race 1: Maribyrnong Trial Stakes – (1000m)

Tempo: Bit of tempo in the first 200m but really slowed in the mid stages and then sprinted home.

Race Overview: Haven’t run time here (3.1L outside) but last sectional was ok.

Zulfiqar ($8): Benefitted from the mid-race slow down and had access to the rail to help guide him home. Had trialled up in Sydney so could argue he has brought Sydney formline down which is traditionally stronger.

Aditi ($6): Ran well. If Shinn kicks up and holds the rail probably wins the race. Gai Waterhouse likes to target the 2yo race on Cox Plate day so would expect her to show up there and be in the mix.

Charm Stone ($2.60): Obviously cost a lot of money but looks to have good ability. The betting move was encouraging and was probably disadvantaged by the mid-race slow down. Looks the horse in the race with the most potential. Does that short SP on debut now dictate that its going to be under the odds in its next few starts? Probably does

Last Word: Haven’t busted the clock but encouraging signs for Charm Stone.

Race 2: Paris Lane Hcp – (1400m)

Tempo: Moderate early tempo made it hard for the horses back in the field.

Race Overview: Haven’t run time and no margins… hmmm… it’s a worry.

Visinari ($1.55): I went into this race thinking Visinari could graduate into Group 1 class later in the Spring given its form around Tuvalu in the Winter. Underdone or not, this race has gone poorly, and he has scrambled home. Only going to go into stronger races now and would need improve quickly.

The Garden ($6.5): Surprising lack of urgency early in the race given how he was ridden last start. Ran well but that was its 3rd run of the campaign and wouldn’t be much fitness wise to come. This is his level.

Character ($9): Probably should have won but beware the unlucky runner in a poor rating race.

Last Word: Visinari would need to improve significantly on that to figure in tougher races this Spring.

Race 3: Edward Manifold Stakes – (1600m)

Tempo: Strong early tempo here.

Race Overview: Race has gone well. Had a good early tempo but also ran home pretty well. Well inside standard time.

She’s Licketysplit ($3.2): Was the hard luck story last start when caught wide on a strong tempo. Much nicer run in transit and ran a good figure here. The logical top pick in the Thousand Guineas.

Typhoon Titmus ($7): Nice effort but won’t be winning the Thousand Guineas.

Sumatra ($6.5): Tough run but did nothing. Forget about it this campaign.

Do It La ($10): Run of the race in my opinion. Was outside the lead on a strong tempo and was the best of the on-pacers. If they lower their sights over the Carnival can win another race with its racing pattern.

Last Word: Do It La the one to follow if they place it right.

Race 4: Rose of Kingston Stakes – (1400m)

Tempo: Soft early tempo (3.7L slow to the 600m)

Race Overview: They went out slow but they really did scoot home well to break standard.

Excelida ($10): Absolute run of the race but got the job done. Don’t think there is much more in her ratings wise but can’t fault her. Doubt she can win an Empire Rose but deserves her spot.

Argentia ($7): Every chance. Think she has a bit more scope for improvement. Another run then should peak in the Empire Rose. Winning chance.

Pride Of Jenni ($3.50): Absolute train wreck from the start. Can understand why the big syndicates backed her. Looked the only obvious leader in the race and ran a good figure last start. Was all over 100m after the start. Doesn’t miss the start if J.Kah rides her.

Yearning ($8.5): Couldn’t win the way the race was run. Forgive.

Last Word: Race has gone well and form should hold up.

Race 5: Danehill Stakes – (1100m)

Tempo: Strong early tempo.

Race Overview: Good solid lead up to the Coolmore. Race has gone well and the first 2 home have separated themselves from the rest in this field.

Giga Kick ($1.95): Was a great “Ride it like it’s the best horse in the race” ride. Good horse and can win the Coolmore. The Sydney form is potentially stronger but who knows who is coming down for the race.

Buenos Noches ($5.50): Had the back of the fave to chase and ran well but think Giga Kick is the better horse. Will be competitive in the Coolmore but don’t think he can beat Giga Kick.

Doull ($7): Not as good as I thought. Has ability but they need to change tact and aim lower.

Last Word: Giga Kick.. good ‘orse.

Race 6: Bart Cummings – (2500m)

Tempo: Ran at a tempo that gave everyone a chance.

Race Overview: Some hard luck stories. No Margins and time only fair.

Lunar Flare ($6): Gets a ticket into the Melbourne Cup but, although it’s a weak year, cannot win the race. Great mare who keeps fronting up but is a level below the best stayers.

Francesco Guardi ($17): Just a ridiculous run (Checked and held up) but the fact he finished so close really puts the slows on the race.

Interpretation ($3.9):  Really one-paced. SP probably the best thing to take out of this race.

Vow and Declare ($8): Held up when trying to wind up but how could you possibly back him in anything?

Last Word: Very worried about this race. The more I watch it, the more I hate it as a form reference.

Race 7: Turnbull Stakes – (2000m)

Tempo: Farcically run race through the middle stages.

Race Overview: Dominated by horses in the first 4. Ok margin for the winner but the rest finished in a clump. Didn’t break standard for the class.

Smokin’ Romans ($21): Started $21 here and is suddenly $4.50 for the Caulfield Cup. I know he drops in weight in the Caulfield Cup, gets J.Kah and it is a weak year but surely there is a weakness there.

Maximal ($15): Every Possible. As good as he goes.

Gold Trip ($3.7): No luck being caught wide. Best of the horses back in the field. I would much rather take the $13 about it in the Caulfield Cup than the $4.50 about Smokin’ Romans.

Surefire ($8.5): Never a chance the way the race was run.

Duais ($6): Don’t think she is going as well as she was last campaign.

Young Werther ($8.5): Went ok but not sure what his target is. Not in Caulfield Cup markets.

Last Word: Cannot believe this is the race we are hanging our hat on for the CC. Gold Trip at $13 is the one to back rather than Smokin’ Romans.

Race 8: Gilgai Stakes – (1200m)

Tempo: Sat up early.

Race Overview: Winner is a genuine G1 horse. The rest are a level below.

Private Eye ($5): Just a level above this lot. Market found it and was never, ever going to lose the race. These top horses are really well suited at the top of the weights in these SWP races. Good figure here but not sure what their aim is down here. Can beat anything bar probably Nature Strip and Lost and Running in the Sprints.

Roch ‘N’ Horse ($6): Every possible. Good genuine straight track horse but that Newmarket win was a fluke.

Swat’s That ($5): I don’t care that she was unlucky. Didn’t finish off well enough. Won’t win another race. Lay Lay Lay!

Last Word: Private Eye has flown here. Keep him fresh and to the 1200m.

Race 9: Super Impose Stakes – (1800m)

Tempo: Strong early tempo.

Race Overview: Well inside standard. Was a good testing tempo but they also ran home ok.

Mr Maestro ($3.7): Had the 1-1 but a really good win. Ran time. Should get at least 2000m and doubt anything that finished behind him in this can turn the tables.

Artzino ($4.60): First campaign and looks like it can get to the Derby. Kept finding the line. Want to see its next run before making up my mind.

Major Beel ($6): Led at a strong tempo and faded. Might be time to lower the sights.

Last Word: Good horse Mr Maestro. If they go to the Vase it will be hard to beat.

Horses to Follow:

· Private Eye: Absolutely flew. Dry track, fresh, 1200m. They’ve found the key to it.

· Do it La: Thought it was the run of the race. Need to lower their sights but think it can win again.

· Giga Kick: Could be a Star. Visually probably wasn’t as impressive as other wins but he’s the real deal.

· Artzino: Is this the Derby horse? Kept trying to find the line.

Horses to Bin:

· Visinari: It pains me to have to do this but this was a low win. I had high hopes for this horse but this wasn’t the win of a horse who is going to feature in big
races.

· Swat’s That: She can stay there. Never getting any of my cash.

TAGGED:

Conversation

Subscribe to Our
Podcast to Know More

Original sport news on everything that
matters in your inbox.

sub-img

More From MintSport

Join Benny Clifton and Sunny Munn as they dissect the 2023 Melbourne Cup, runner by runner. Benny gives us his top 5 chances for the big race and an O-Munn bet from Sunny for good measure. https://open.spotify.com/episode/7Cw0n2jvQJTfi1198UOX7y?si=f
3 Teams. $8,500 in prize money. …One EPIC day at The Balnarring Picnic races! Welcome to
The Punting Monologue is back for another week. A massive Blue Diamond Stakes Day from Caulfield. Check out Benny's analysis for  LADY OF CAMELOT  in the Blue Diamond: https://youtu.be/fefjeLRes9A?si=PHERRGmYiW3O_ChI

Subscribe to Our Podcast to Know More

Original sport news on everything that matters in your inbox.

sub-img