THE PUNTING MONOLOGUE "AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS SPECIAL LISTEN

Flemington Makybe Diva Stakes Day Meeting Review

Date: 10/09/22

Track: Soft 6

Pattern:

Race 1: Poseidon Stakes – (1100m)

Tempo:  Solid enough. No excuses tempo-wise for any of the runners

Race Overview: First 2 home (Spacewalk and Buenos Noches) both had Sydney form coming out of the San Domenico won by Sweet Ride. Race hasn’t gone particularly well here and any Group 1 hopes for any of the horses in this race look fanciful.

Spacewalk ($5.50): I’m treating Spacewalk as the winner as I think it was very stiff to lose the race on protest. Overraced most of the race but then travelled well between the 600m and 400m. He’s got something about him but needs to sort his manners out. Obviously, a Group class horse but think he is on the 2nd/3rd tier of 3yos.

Buenos Noches ($8.50): Comes out of the same form line as Spacewalk. Was just out the back doing nothing and obviously had no luck in the run home. Only win had come at Canterbury on a heavy deck so needed to do something on the firmer surface. Has ability but I think connections need to resist the urge to put him over more ground.

Doull ($2.70-$4.60): Market completely spat it out. Going into this race I had hopes that he would stand up to be one of the top 3yos in a year that is crying out for one from left field. Market knew and now I know. He’s not top class. Hard to rescue a campaign off that.

Alpha One ($3.30): Absolutely off the map in betting ($4.20-$3.30) at first go down the straight. I think you have to forgive him given the market support. Get him back around a bend and I can give him another chance.

Last Word: Can’t believe the protest was upheld. Any horse that was exposed to the wind struggled.

Race 2: Hcp – (1700m)

Tempo: Very slow early tempo.

Race Overview: Farcical early tempo. They have struggled to run any sort of time here and overall looks a messy form race.

Makram ($19): Won 2nd up at the Flem 1700m for the 2nd time. Hasn’t done anything on the clock in either of them. Nice enough horse but was the beneficiary of a great ride and the price tells the story. Think this is his level.

Hezashocka ($5): Was off 56 Days here and did enough. They seem to have found his sweet spot. Will be better for the run and up to 2000m next start with a strong tempo. He can win.

Great House ($34): Nice enough run off a break

Young Werther ($15): Did enough

Sir Davy ($4.40): The disappointment of the race for mine. The preparation was a little unorthodox but have to trust the camp on that. No excuses and didn’t show his usual sprint.

Lyrical Lad ($3.20): Off the map but the tempo didn’t suit him. Also, Jamie Mott riding at 54kg is never going to be a good thing. Entitled to find the line better.

Last Word: First 4 home had the suck run and cover from the wind. Have to pick the eyes out of this because I think the slow tempo really didn’t suit some horses (Hezashocka/Lyrical Lad/Sir Davy).

Race 3: Cap D’Antibes – (1100m)

Tempo:  They went quick here (-7L to the 600m for the class).

Race Overview: Very quick early tempo suited those horses with the strong finish. Nanagui had cover for as long as possible.

Nanganui ($21): Was the beneficiary of the strong early tempo and having cover from the wind. Kept it covered for as long as possible but had to expose it when nothing was taking it into the race.

English Riviera ($4): Busted the clock on the Synth at previous run and market loved it here. Was exposed the whole race but what I loved was how it sprinted from the 400m to the 200m. Get it around a bend and it wins.

Ghaanati ($4.80): Deary me. I had hopes for this filly much like Doull in Race 1. Very hard to make excuses for it and even harder to rescue its prep.

Bubble Palace ($14): Surprisingly spat out by the market late and had a heart attack at the 300m mark. Back to the drawing board.

Last Word: English Riviera is the one to follow. Going to be very different circumstances for a lot of these horses next start so could be some wild form swings but no margins here has me concerned.

Race 4: The Sofitel – (1400m)

Tempo: Very even tempo early.

Race Overview: Real sprint home this but what a stellar turn of foot by Scallopini. Pinstriped too far back on a slow tempo. Great effort overall to run inside standard time (-2.2L) given they went so slow early.

Scallopini ($7): For a horse that has been around the block a lot this was probably his best win. Can pick off one of the lower run races over the Spring

Pinstriped ($4): Market really came for it first up which is always a good sign but racing pattern makes things hard. Only going to get harder from here but has done enough first up.

Bermadez ($3.8): Trainwreck. Forgive.

Last Word: Race has gone good. Steve O’Dea and Matt Hoysted are the best trainers in Qld (had 3 winners at Doomben on Saturday) by some way in my opinion. No surprise to see them doing well down here.

Race 5: Makybe Diva Stakes – (1600m)

Tempo: Steady tempo through the mid stages. Suited Alligator Blood up front

Race Overview: Good margins and ran home in good sectionals. This is a solid formline to follow through the Spring.

I’m Thunderstruck ($2.6): Absolute bulldog. Has come back a genuine G1 WFA horse. You compare him to Mr Brightside from last week and I am taking IT every day of the week. Genuine Cox Plate contender.

Alligator Blood ($5): Tim Clark could not have ridden this horse any better. Was this his chance? Not sure where he is going but I would prefer him to run in a Toorak with a big weight than running in a Cox Plate where he would get lapped.

Cascadian ($4.40): Will never be a WFA horse. Hard to place at the moment

Western Empire ($8.5): Was plain first up and just plain awful 2nd up. Get back on the plane and see you next time.

Last Word: I’m Thunderstruck is a genuine Cox Plate contender.

Race 6: Hcp – (2500)

Tempo: Not for the feint hearted.

Race Overview: Not really the type of race I get enthused by but the strong early tempo (-7L) suited some horses. Most of those horses won’t get the same set up next time and will find it hard to repeat that rating.

High Emocean ($12): Had cover in the 3 wide running lane on a hot tempo. The perfect place to be. Against her next time as everything went in her favour here.

Interpretation ($4.80): Import who had good market support but was very, very plain. Camp need to work their magic.

Vow And Declare ($26): Can’t believe he is still a horse. Doubt he wins anything over the Spring.

Point Nepean ($5): How could you possibly back a Lloyd Williams horse at the moment?

Last Word: Do your best with this race, they are going to take their turns in winning and none are going onto better things.

Race 7: Let’s Elope – (1400m)

Tempo: Lady of Honour looked like she was going to see a good tempo but slowed mid race.

Race Overview: Gone about standard time and margins aren’t great. A bunch of even mares who have just about found their level.

Kissonallforcheeks ($3.6): The market knew here ($4 into $3.60 late) and I put that down to the Nick Ryan factor. Have you ever seen a Nick Ryan horse not find the line? The answer is no. Should back up in the Rupert Clarke as I don’t think she is at her best at 1600m.

Lady Of Honour ($13): Great ride and had every chance. This is her level, the task is placing her now.

Yearning ($31): Signs of life with her. Empire Rose probably her go.

Flying Mascot ($4): Outside the lead obviously not ideal but doesn’t appear to be going as well as last campaign. Maybe the Stocks Stakes is her chance to get a win this campaign.

Last Word: Nick Ryan.

Race 8: Bobbie Lewis Quality – (1200m)

Tempo: Sat up in the mid stages here.

Race Overview: The wind really affected these straight races. On face value this race hasn’t rated well, time and margins no good.

Baller ($21): Always had a figure in it but won’t win again this campaign

Swat’s That ($4.80): Not even Maher/Eustace can get her to find her best rating. She’s just not one of mine and happy to sack her on that.

Last Word: The bunch of sprinters below the cream (Nature Strip, Eduardo, Lost and Running, Classique Legend) are very even. Don’t particularly want to follow anything out of this race.

Race 9: Exford Plate – (1400m)

Tempo: Solid enough tempo to give everyone their chance.

Race Overview: This race has gone awful. No time or margins and for that reason I only want to take one horse out of it.

Berkeley Square ($4.40-$3.40): A really great case study this horse. Absolutely smashed in betting, the race has gone no good but he was held up and only got out late. The big syndicates are likely to take a set against this horse next start given the figures but I think he is a genuinely good horse. I would rather be with him than a horse like Jacquinot going towards the Caulfield Guineas, but its all about whether the Sydney colts are better (which they probably are). I also think he’s a worthy VRC Derby favourite.

Last Word: Keep Berkeley Square, bin the rest.

Horses to Folllow:

· English Rivieria – around a bend.

· I’m Thunderstruck – no prizes for finding this one

· Berkeley Square – Going against the figures here, think he’s a good ‘orse.

Horses to Bin:

· Doull – woof

· Ghaanati – the bubble has burst

· Western Empire – ill drive him to the airport

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