THE PUNTING MONOLOGUE "AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS SPECIAL LISTEN

Caulfield’s Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Day Meeting Review

Date: 17/09/2022

Track: Soft 6 until race 3, Heavy 8 or worse after

Pattern: Headwind in the Chute races made it hard for on-pace horses. Needed to be 8-9 horses off the fence in the straight. Some horses who were in the right part of the track may have been flattered i.e. Ingratiating, Zapateo type runs.

Race 1: Bm78 – (2000m)

Tempo: Solid early tempo (-5.5L to the 600mm) with Global Gift leading by 5L mid-race.

Race Overview: They have run nicely inside standard time and the margins look good. Maybe the only black mark against the race is the slow last section. It was the weakest class on the day but the race has gone ok.

Unique Artist ($10): Didn’t particularly have the best run for the race shape but travelled so sweetly. Margin to 3rd and overall time was solid. I think it can win again with it’s racing pattern.

Global Gift ($6.50): Set a solid tempo, then let the field catch up to him before giving a kick a gain. Absolutely flying at the moment and I would love if they put on a more potent jockey. Opperman is 1 winner from his last 50 rides.

Fengarada ($3.60-$5): Big Drifter in betting and had every chance. Few things here: was up in class significantly, I think the early market price was far too short and was sucked in by the big margin last start. You have to remember it did start $11 in that race so the bookies were licking their lips at his early price in this race. Also, the track wasn’t anywhere near as wet as his previous runs. Plenty of factors go into it but that early price was just ridiculous.

Head Of State ($8): A horse who started $4.40 in a G1 only 4 starts ago who has completely fallen off a cliff. Couldn’t possibly back it in anything.

Last Word: I’ve got hope for this race as a form reference. They did have first use of the track but I think winners will come out of it.

Race 2: 3yo Hcp – (1000m)

Tempo: Wind was a factor here. Out of the chute races they were straight into a 30km/hr headwind. Overall the early tempo wasn’t breakneck but anything that faced the breeze struggled.

Race Overview: Worried about this race. Didn’t run time and there is a lack of margins. Would be forgiving of those that faced the breeze but only a little.

Lascars ($7): Had J.Kah first time and got a dream run. Exposed late for its run. Got the win here but very worried about this race.

Winnertakesitall ($16): Was coming out of that fast Bound for Home race at Caulfield. Had the right run for this track. Was flashing late but it had the exact run you needed here. Not keen to follow.

Port Albert ($5.50): Thought it was entitled to win the race with the run it had. Has its limitations.

Extravagant Star ($2.70-$3.70): Possibly the only horse I could take out of this race. Happy to be forgiving of it but might be hard to rid itself of the stench of the form line.

Kin ($6.5): Beware of the unlucky runner in a bad race.

Last Word: Yuck race. Maybe be forgiving of Extravagant Star… maybe.

Race 3: Living Legends Bm90 Hcp – (1400m)

Tempo: Bang on standard for the class. No excuses tempo-wise for anything.

Race Overview: Like the look of the margins in this race. Let’s not forget this is mares company so, if they stick to this grade, at least the first 2 home will be worth following.

Pride Of Jenni ($4.80): Thought Zac Spain rode her absolutely perfect here. Rated the tempo perfectly and let her slide at the exact right moment. The change of camp at the start of the campaign gives her the chance to go to another level. Can keep winning.

Megamea ($13): No luck when she had slow horses fall in her lap. Good margin to 3rd. Been around the block but I’m giving her a good tick.

Saigon ($4.20): Last 200m was disgraceful. Entitled to do more.

Adele Amour ($5): Remarkably safe in the betting off a break. Did nothing. Bad camp.

Last Word: First 2 worth following.

Race 4: Caulfield Guineas Prelude – (1400m)

Tempo: They went at a decent clip given the conditions.

Race Overview: Almost need to look at this race in isolation. Be very forgiving of those back in the field.

Aft Cabin ($2.15): Lived up to his SP. He’s a good horse. Was beaten last start when he was 1400m back to 1200m. You needed to trust the SP from last start. He can win the Guineas but don’t get sucked into the margin here. It was flattering for him.

Meridius ($14): Was very good at MV last start. Another good run. Not convinced he will be suited at the 1600m of the Guineas. Reckon they could pick off some low hanging fruit below the top races.

Osipenko ($4.40): I reckon if Waller had the option to scratch he would’ve. Complete forgive.

Last Word: Shouldn’t have run the race so I would be forgiving of those back in the field.

Race 5: Thousand Guineas Prelude – (1400m)

Tempo: Solid tempo (-4.8L to the 600m). Leader really strode from the 600m.

Race Overview: They have run inside standard time here and there was good separation in the field. Will be horses to follow.

Boogie Dancer ($5.5): Was good first up at the Valley when not suited at all. Up in distance and the Heavy track to her liking. Race run to suit and got to the right part of the track. There was plenty in her favour here so if she went back to a dry surface, I wouldn’t be all in on her.

Sumatra ($9.50): Was the left-field form line and ran home well in the best part of the track. Not sure what her race is and not sure if she is much good or was just flattered here.

She’s Licketysplit ($4.80-$3.80): Absolute train wreck from the start. Still managed to give a kick at the top of the straight. Don’t drop off her.

Last Word: I’m worried that Boogie Dancer had far too much in her favour here. Would be against on a firm track first go.

Race 6: MRC Foundation Cup – (2000m)

Tempo: Really slowed down in front. Farcical really. Hard for those back in the field.

Race Overview: Messy race. A lot of horses back in the field had no chance.

Smokin’ Romans ($8): Solid in the betting and really put itself in the race. This is his level. Will be competitive in all the 2nd tier staying races over the Spring, nothing more.

Uncle Bryn ($7.50): Is a really nice horse in a really bad camp. D.Moor could not have ridden it any better. Has another win in it this campaign, I think.

Gold Trip ($4.40-$3.90): Just wasn’t suited by the really slow tempo and couldn’t sprint with them. The market suggests this horse is going to win races this campaign. Stronger tempo up to 2500m and he can win the Melbourne Cup lead up races.

Last Word: This field is going to be running in the Melbourne Cup lead up races. There are winners there and I think the main horse to follow will be Gold Trip.

Race 7: Sir Rupert Clarke – (1400m)

Tempo: Was a solid tempo once Buffalo River got to the lead.

Race Overview: It is clear by the time this race came around that the best part of the track was 7-8 horses off the fence. Be forgiving of those on the inside.

Callsign Mav ($16): Back to Handicap conditions suited him. Was wide but that was the place to be. Just when it looks like the Danny O’Brien camp can’t train a winner they bob up with a G1 winner. Right part of the track here and think there are other horses I want next start in the Toorak.

I Am Superman ($15): We know what I Am Superman is and that’s why I’m worried about the majority of the field. Right part of the track and expect him to be around the same price in the Toorak.

Tuvalu ($4): This is the horse. Off the map in betting to start $4 (much like I’m Thunderstruck in this race last year), and was never in the right part of the track. Get him on a firmer track in the Toorak and he’s in the finish. Any sign of a jockey change and I’m all in.

Last Word: As a whole I don’t like the race but Tuvalu is a G1 horse. He will win a G1 this Spring.

Race 8: How Now Stakes – (1200m)

Tempo: Very moderate early tempo with the jockeys not wanting to go too hard into the wind.

Race Overview: Didn’t really give themselves a chance to run fast overall time as they went so slow early.

Zapateo ($5): Coming out of Eduardo’s Concorde Stakes. Really did have the run you wanted by this stage of the day. Building a good record on wet tracks. Don’t necessarily think there is more levels in her but any mares race she will be competitive.

Chain Of Lightning ($1.65): Ridden warmer here and faced the breeze. I am not jumping off her but she’s getting deeper into the campaign and there is no upside in her this time in.

Last Word: Think the winner had the right run. Can win again but think she was a little flattered.

Race 9: Hcp – (1100m)

Tempo: Moderate tempo again (+2.3L to the 600m) due to the win.

Race Overview: First 2 home were good in the best part of the track. Race has gone pretty good. Some nice G3/G2 Class sprinters here.

Ingratiating ($9): Specked in betting. Really well placed in this race. Zahra was happy to sit out in the best part of the track. Great ride with clear running. Will go up in class but has shown in the past he has limitations.

It’sourtime ($3.40): Unfortunately didn’t draw the right part of the track. Held up a bit but just couldn’t sprint with Ingratiating. He is hard to place but keep him fresh at this distance range and he will be around the mark.

Curran ($7.50): Steered into the wrong part of the track. Thought it ran really well. This is his level but happy with the way he is going.

Last Word: The races will get tougher in the next 6 weeks. I think this race will stand up, but it will be important how these horses are placed.

Horses to Follow:

· Tuvalu – Thought the market told the story with this horse. He’s G1 class and will be better suited on a dry track.

· Gold Trip – Convinced he will win one of the Melb Cup lead ups. Farcical early tempo didn’t suit him. In the right camp.

· Curran – Wrong part of the track. Hard to place but going well.

· Uncle Bryn – Wasn’t particularly well placed here given it was a rise in class. Placed right can win next start.

Horses to Bin:

· Head of State – Maxy Gawn!

· Race 2 – bar maybe Extravagant Star

· Careful of horses who found the right part of the track late in the day, their runs may have been flattering.

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