THE PUNTING MONOLOGUE "AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS SPECIAL LISTEN

Caulfield Guineas Meeting Review

Date: 08/10/22

Track: Soft 5.

Pattern: Inside rail was probably not the place to be and you couldn’t be too far off them but overall the track raced well.

Race 1: Debutant Stakes – (1000m)

Tempo: Went out outside standard.

Race Overview: This race has gone really, really good. It was a sprint home, but they smashed the clock. 7.7L inside standard for the last 600m. Compare this race to the 2yo race at Flemington and there is just no comparison.

King’s Gambit ($2.9): Could be a megastar. Soft, soft win in great time. Great last sectional. It is an early season 2yo race but this is a serious marker it has laid down. Get it to the Blue Diamond in one piece and something would need to be pretty good to beat it.

Pure Paradise ($16): Beaten by a very good horse. Follow.

Heuristic ($4.6): Can win in the next few weeks.

Last Word: Follow any of the clump of horses behind this star.

Race 2: Weekend Hussler Hcp – (1400m)

Tempo: Good early tempo, then strange slow up between the 800m and the 600m.

Race Overview: Just outside standard for the class so, in terms of time, the race is just ok. Might need to pick the eyes out of it in terms of coming winners.

Cardinal Gem ($4.6): Really hard to fault this horse. Has become a real turn of foot horse and dropped 4 kg in this which suits these types of horses. Don’t think they should aim much higher this time in but can win again.

Old Flame ($2.6): Not one of Jamie Kah’s finest moments. She was a victim of the race slow down between the 800m and 600m but she had to get rolling when that happened. Should have at least run 2nd.

Jimmy The Bear ($6): All sorts of traffic issues. Has a good strike rate and will see fitness improvement. Follow.

Last Word: Messy race from the 600m. Some hard luck stories.

Race 3: Thoroughbred Club Stakes – (1200m)

Tempo: Very strong early tempo. 4L inside standard to the 600m.

Race Overview: I’m a little worried here. Last sectional wasn’t much chop, winner looked out on its feet and no real margins.

English Riviera ($8): Had the cosy run in behind and got clear running at the right time. Really needed the line late. It’s getting deep into a campaign and McEvoy horses tend to struggle going deep into a campaign. I’m against her going forward.

Mumbai Jewel ($23): Big odds and don’t know what her race is.

Troach ($6.5): Went quick in front but folded pretty meekly. Spell.

La Danseuse Rouge ($31): Big odds but over raced 3 wide without cover. Had some nerve to be whacking away at the end. Something about her.

Last Word: Worried about this race as a form reference.

Race 4: Village Stakes – (1200m)

Tempo: Mid-race slow down.

Race Overview: Becoming evident by this race you had to be 4-5 horses off the rail coming to the turn.

Gravina ($6): Through the I Wish I Win race last start. Great ride by Shinn (good to have him back). This is his level but gives himself a chance every time because he can put himself in a spot.

Nicolini Vito ($14): Another with the I Wish I Win form line. 6 weeks between runs and does handle the straight so no doubt aimed at a race over the Flemington Carnival.

Zethus ($6): Wide but probably in the right part of the track. Only 2nd up and will be competitive in this class in the next few weeks.

Triple Missile ($7): Was first up here. Plenty of options for him at Flemington. Nice enough horse.

Curran ($12): Trainwreck. Needs a jockey.

Last Word: I Wish I Win form line the key to this race.

Race 5: Herbert Power Stakes – (2400m)

Tempo: Very slow tempo in this race.

Race Overview: Winner much too good but the race has really struggled time-wise. A long way outside standard due to the slow early tempo.

Sacaren Knight ($4.2): In rare form since Jamie Kah went on board. Her balance throughout these staying races is just invaluable.

Makram ($23): Kept finding the line. Nice effort. Will be competitive in Melbourne Cup lead ups.

Desert Icon ($8): As far as he wants it.

Sheraz ($15): The unlucky runner in the race. Waller will find a race for it.

Last Word: Lloyd Williams horses (Point Nepean) are proving to be absolute road blocks at the moment. Completely uncompetitive.

Race 6: Schillaci Stakes – (1100m)

Tempo: On standard for the early tempo.

Race Overview: Race has gone nearly bang on standard. These horses are going to be going to harder races in the next few weeks.

Paulele ($2.15): G1 form lines in a similar vein to Private Eye last week. Class runner and got a J-Mac peach. Has proven over time that it is probably a rung below the topliners.

Ingratiating ($7.5): Flying. Pick off some low hanging sprinting fruit over the Carnival.

Queen Of The Ball ($4): Remarkably well supported given it was coming off the leader bias at the Valley. Found out when unable to dictate.

Last Word: Paulele goes to the big time now and needs everything to go its way to snag a G1.

Race 7: Might And Power – (2000m)

Tempo: Very slow tempo early but it was game on from the 800m.

Race Overview: Probably visually more pleasing than the time was. Slow early tempo meant it was always going to be tough to smash the clock.

Anamoe ($2.2): Lost the plot around the turn when they upped the ante. If this lot were going to beat him this was the day. Absolute bulldog and a quicker early tempo would suit him better. Logical favourite in the Cox Plate.

I’m Thunderstruck ($7): This was his opportunity to beat Anamoe. I think he is a query at 2000m if there is a strong tempo. The sprint home suited him. Deserves his spot in the Cox Plate but doubt he can beat Anamoe.

Zaaki ($5): Would love to see him rolling along in front but the presence of Alligator Blood makes it hard for him to do that. If Anamoe was to get beaten in the Cox Plate I think he is the most likely. Market obviously says that but I think he is the most likely to thrive in the pressure of a Cox Plate.

Mr Brightside ($26): Made a bit of ground but suited by the soft tempo. Not up to this lot.

Alligator Blood ($7): Don’t think the ride did him any favours given they went too slow but I think he had the fitness edge last start and that was his race. Will be the bunny in the Cox Plate but nothing else

Benaud ($21): My pick for the Caulfield Cup on the back up. Prefer this form line to the Smokin’ Romans Turnbull.

Nonconformist ($81): Doing enough as a lead up to a very weak Caulfield Cup. He’s the right price for that race.

Mo’Unga ($11): Not up to the very top line.

Last Word: One for the purists. How can you not like J-Mac? A humble champion at the top of his game.

PUNT ON THE COX PLATE HERE

Race 8: Caulfield Guineas – (1600m)

Tempo: Slow tempo through the middle stages.

Race Overview: Not a vintage Caulfield Guineas, ran no time and no margins, but it still remains the leading 3yo form line for the Spring. Need to pick the eyes out of it.

Golden Mile ($2.7): Once again the Golden Rose form line proving the right form line. Did a good job but surely goes for a spell now. He is no Anamoe.

Ellipitical ($15): They want to go to the Cox Plate. Could break it.

Osipenko ($17): Was a complete forgive last start in the pouring rain. Nice horse but maybe all came a bit soon for it. Do they go to a Derby?

Berkeley Square ($4.8): Hadn’t broken the clock yet but was all style leading in. Bit of a nothing ride and think he can win the Derby.

Last Word: Not a vintage year by any means. Winner might have been in the spelling paddock (Aft Cabin).

Race 9: Toorak Hcp – (1600m)

Tempo: Very strong. 3.6L inside standard. Not for the weak.

Race Overview: Race has gone well. Ran inside standard time and there was separation in the field.

Tuvalu ($10): Had G1 figures during the winter and the market loved it in the Rupert Clarke. Really needed that cosy run on such a hot tempo. The strength of this horse is it’s racing pattern. Hot tempo and he can sit just behind them, slow tempo and he can lead them up. Already has and will continue to win him plenty of races.

Law Of Indices ($13): Great run. Went back from the wide gate. Flying.

Military Expert ($16): This was the run of the race. Outside leader on a hot tempo. This horse is airborne. Does he have anything left this campaign.

Gentlemen Roy ($13): Great effort. Proven that it is up to this grade they just need to find the right race for it. Might not be this campaign.

I Wish I Wish ($2.2): Bit of a head scratcher for me. Couldn’t find too many excuses but maybe the strong early tempo took its finish away. Kept finding the line. Figures from past 2 runs have indicated that he is a G1 horse and the market suggested that here. Can still win the Golden Eagle if they go that way.

Last Word: Racing pattern is everything in racing. Horses who race on-speed are profitable. Another punting lesson learnt by me backing I Wish I Win!

Race 10: Northwood Plume – (1200m)

Tempo: Slow early tempo.

Race Overview: The real surprise of the day is how well this race has gone. They went out slow but really got home well to finish well inside standard time.

Literary Magnate ($15): In for a good prep on the back of that. I think it will be better placed targeting the Sandown races after the Flemington Carnival is over.

Written Beauty ($16): Signs of life but hasn’t lived up to early promise. Race has gone well so maybe they can pick off a low race over the Flem Carnival.

Zapateo ($1.85): Every chance. Maybe not wet enough.

Last Word: Given the time they have run form is likely to hold up from this race.

Horses to Follow:

· King’s Gambit – Could be anything. Follow anything out of this race.

· La Danseuse Rouge – the horse to follow out of a weak race.

· I Wish I Win – I know it’s a bitter pill to swallow after he was so well backed on Saturday but the market is rarely wrong and it has it marked as a serious G1
horse.

· Benaud – Reckon it should be favourite in a seriously weak Caulfield Cup.

  PUNT ON THE CAULFIELD CUP HERE

Other Things to Note:

· This is not a vintage Caulfield Guineas. Wouldn’t surprise me if we look back on this in a few years and wonder what happened to a lot of these horses.

· J-Mac…. Daylight… J-Kah… Daylight. Jamie may not have had her best day, but market loves them both and what a pleasure it is to watch them in the saddle.

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