THE PUNTING MONOLOGUE "AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS SPECIAL LISTEN

Caulfield Cup Day Meeting Review

Date: 15/10/22

Track: Soft 6

Pattern: Were getting off the fence for most of the day.

Race 1: 3yo Fillies Hcp – (1400m)

Tempo: Small field and leisurely tempo as expected. 5.1L outside standard.

Race Overview: Went out slow and ran home only fairly. Race has gone along well outside standard.

Quang Tri ($1.55): Visually a really nice return for a horse who can get over ground. All wins have been on soft tracks but that could just be the time of year she has been racing. They have run ordinary time here and if she goes to something like a Carbine Club I would be against her.

Desiah ($3.4): Change of tactics in a small field and went putrid. Hard to forgive.

Last Word: This race has gone poorly on time. Quang Tri has scope but wouldn’t want to raise the bar too high with her.

Race 2: Bm80 – (1700m)

Tempo: They went about standard for the early tempo. No excuses for any horse.

Race Overview: Overall the race has gone well. They really sprinted well the last 400m. Ok margins and there is some improvement in some of these horses.

Saint Bathans ($4.4): Was down in grade here and ridden a lot more positive. Great ride and did a nice job. Can win in better class than this.

Cap De Joie ($1.95): Racing pattern makes it hard for her sometimes but she has also drawn the outside at her past 3 runs. I really hope they ride her closer when she gets to 2000m. Also, I know Ollie is the GOAT but I would love to see someone like D.Lane on this horse. Ollie is out of form.

Right You Are ($9): I think he is ready to do something now. Two runs back from a long break have been solid. If he doesn’t do something next start than he is at the crossroads.

Last Word: Cap De Joie is the one to follow. I still believe she is group class.

Race 3: Neds Classic – (2000m)

Tempo: Went at a decent clip for this class and distance. Went 3.2 lengths inside standard.

Race Overview: Ran solid time and good margin to third.

Mr Maestro ($1.7): Ridden dirty here but kept finding the line. Worth Derby favourite.

Muramasa ($6.5): Really good effort here. Outside the lead on a strong tempo and kept kicking. Good margin to third. Only its third run and does it have the right grounding for a Derby? That is the query.

Red Sun Sensation ($5.5): Very disappointing. Will be making up the numbers if they go to the Derby.

Last Word: Mr Maestro is the rightful favourite in the Derby.

Race 4: Ethereal Stakes – (2000m)

Tempo: Strong tempo for this class and distance.

Race Overview: Good testing contest as a lead up to the Oaks. First two home look like nice horses.

Renaissance Woman ($5): Brought the Sydney form down, gave them a start and a beating. Should eat the Oaks trip up but yet to race on a dry track. Couldn’t have done any more here.

Foxy Cleopatra ($4.8): Really nice filly. As with her stablemate Muramasa, I am concerned that she doesn’t have the grounding for the Oaks just yet. Do they go to the Wakeful then the Oaks? It’s a big ask in her first campaign.

Pavitra ($6): Every possible. Doubt she can turn the tables on the first two in the Oaks.

Moko ($6): Forget about her for now.

Last Word: First two home are really nice horses. Think they need to run in the Wakeful then back up into the Oaks to have the ideal prep.

Race 5: Gothic Stakes – (1400m)

Tempo: Strong early tempo (-1.7L) and only fair home.

Race Overview: I love the separation in the field here. They have gone inside standard and margins are good. The logical next race is the Carbine Club Stakes on Derby Day for a lot of these.

Sandpaper ($8.5): It is not easy to do what Sandpaper did here. Sit outside the lead on a hot tempo and keep kicking. I think a lot of punters will be thinking Angry Skies is the one to follow here but I would argue Sandpaper had a lot tougher run.

Angry Skies ($4.6): Looked the winner the whole race but somehow didn’t get there. He is a really nice colt and is doing this all in his first racing campaign.

Eponynmous ($5.5): Very forgivable. Good SP. Thought he battled on well.

Last Word: I am taking Sandpaper ahead of Angry Skies into the Carbine Club Stakes.

Race 6: Alinghi Stakes – (1100m)

Tempo: Another nice tempo set (-1.7L).

Race Overview: Margin to 3rd and race has gone pretty good for the class.

A Very Fine Red ($5): Was only having her second run back. Had Mazu and Zapateo form from last campaign. Proven down the straight and they are obviously targeting a race over the Flemington Carnival. Going well.

Shalstar ($5): She is a really nice mare. This was by far her toughest test. More to give this campaign.

Mileva ($4.8): Every chance and no excuses.

Melba Storm ($9): Followed the winner through and was ok.

Last Word: Happy to follow the first two home if they are placed appropriately over the Flemington Carnival.

Race 7: The McCafe Sprint – (1000m)

Tempo: They went slow early for a 1000m race.

Race Overview: There is no doubt the tempo suited Asfoora out in front, but this was a very good win. Good effort to get inside standard considering the early tempo. Good margins.

Asfoora ($4.2): It’s amazing what happens when you put a jockey on a horse. Was terribly placed last start at MV and they get it into the right race, with a positive jockey change, and it bolts in. She will end up a G1 horse. If they put her away and come back for an Oakleigh Plate I wouldn’t blame them, but I suspect they push on.

Kallos ($7): Signs of life with him this campaign. Just don’t know where they place him from here.

Generation ($3.8): I don’t know what to do with this horse. I have always said I would love to see him over 1400m out in front but doesn’t look like they are going down that path. A conundrum.

Dragonstone ($4): Wrong part of the track but never in the race. Worth one more chance given his starting price but a little concerning.

Last Word: Asfoora = lear jet.

Race 8: Tristarc Stakes – (1400m)

Tempo: Good tempo set by Pride Of Jenni.

Race Overview: There’s margins, they have run good time, but I think there is some horses getting towards the end of what they can offer this campaign.

Chain Of Lightning ($5.5): Never did I think she was looking for 1400m then she goes and does this. Now looks like 1600m is well within her grasp. They need to go to the Empire Rose now, but I doubt ill be with her despite this.

Palaisipan ($7): Not convinced she will get the 1600m of the Empire Rose.

Pride Of Jenni ($3.9): Stepped away slowly and had to do a bit of work. Had a significant jockey change but unfortunately things didn’t go her way. Think she may be running out of steam this campaign.

Last Word: Even though this race has rated ok, when you look at each runner in depth, I just find it hard to see any of them winning the logical next race for them, the Empire Rose.

Race 9: Caulfield Cup – (2400m)

Tempo: Slowed down through the middle stages.

Race Overview: The slow tempo really made it difficult for the plodders in the race. Needs a turn of foot and that’s what Durston produced. This was the weakest Caulfield Cup in a long time.

Durston ($18): What an amazing ride, hats off to M.Dee. Needed to be inch perfect and it was. This was his race, and he will not be winning the Melbourne Cup.

Gold Trip ($15): Great effort with the big weight. Looked the winner. He is improving with every run in Australia but if he goes to the Melbourne Cup he is no chance.

Knights Order ($17): Battled on ok. Won’t ever run better than this.

Smokin’ Romans ($3.9): We will look back on the day that Smokin’ Romans started $3.90 in a Caulfield Cup and wonder how? Found some traffic but also remembered he was Smokin’ Romans at about the 200m mark.

Last Word: This was one of the worst Caulfield Cup fields in recent memory. The International runners will make an absolute mess of them in the Melbourne Cup.

Last, Last Word: Imagine what Incentivise would’ve done to this lot.

Race 10: Moonga Stakes – (1400m)

Tempo: Ran at a tempo that gave every horse their chance.

Race Overview: They have plodded home a bit here, but it was the last race of the day.

Aegon ($7): This horse started $2.60 in a Randwick Guineas as a 3yo. Has done nothing since but obviously had issues. This is his level for now.

Bandersnatch ($4.2): Really solid in the market with the I Wish I Win form line. This horse needs a cold shower after looking like the winner the whole race. Only 2nd run back, he can improve into a race over the Flemington Carnival.

Last Word: Race has only gone fairly.

Horses to Follow:

· Asfoora – G1 conveyance.

· Shalstar – Think they can find a race for her down the straight.

· Sandpaper – Visually was workmanlike but had a lot against him and kept finding. Think he is a chance in the Carbine Club at Flemington.

· Cap De Joie – Leaving her in here. Would love a jockey change.

Other Things of Note:

· If the Internationals turn up in one piece to the Melbourne Cup, then the race is all over.

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